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Posts Tagged ‘Polls’

Good thing Obama says he disregards polls; He wouldn’t like these

Posted by Mats on 10/04/2010

Original

April 5, 2010 | 11:18 am
Democrat president Barack Obama on his limo Car Cell

While you were searching for Easter eggs (you missed one behind the books, bottom shelf), we were searching for recent items for the Monday morning poll basket.

President Obama recently appeared to endorse offshore oil drilling in certain areas, though any oil and gas production is years away. This poll found an overwhelming majority of Americans agree on the need for offshore drilling and a clear majority support it off the entire U.S. coastline. They would include California and New England, strongly Democratic areas that Obama still excludes.

Now that Obama has signed his beloved healthcare legislation and despite his continued stumping for the measure, CBS News finds a) the stumping has been ineffective, b) most Americans don’t like the bill (53%), c) many expect the quality of care to decrease while costs continue to increase and d) few see anything in it for them. Other than that, it’s a huge public relations success.

As another result of the passage and preceding rancorous healthcare debate, Rasmussen Reports finds that 53% of Americans now say they trust Republicans more with this traditionally Democratic issue, while 37% still trust that party.

As yet another result, Obama’s overall approval rating has now hit the lowest point since he….

…took office — 44% — which is down five points since before he signed the healthcare bill and down 24 points since his poll high last April.

On healthcare alone, the president’s disapproval rating is 55% and approval just above one-in-three (34%).

MAD magazine Cover regarding Democrat president Barack Obama

The RealClearPolitics average has Obama’s approval at 47.5% and disapproval at 46.1.

A USA Today/Gallup Poll finds 44% of Americans believe healthcare will worsen as a result of Obama’s healthcare bill vs. 34% who think it will help; 55% believe Obama’s bill will worsen healthcare costs, 29% help; 61% believe Obama’s bill will worsen the federal deficit, 23% improve; and 46% believe Obama’s bill will worsen the economy while 35% think it will help.

The good news for Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is that Americans’ opinion of her hasn’t changed much recently; the bad news is they still don’t like her much.

Gallup finds that at the beginning of her House control in 2007, the first female speaker’s approval was two times as favorable as unpopular, 44%-22%.

Today, her favorable rating has slipped to 36% while her unfavorable rating has shot to 54%.

Today, Senate Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid’s favorable rating is 29%, unfavorable 45%.

All the fighting over healthcare the last year while so many Americans said their top concern was the economy has now resulted in Democrats losing their large edge on the economy. Last summer, CNN/Opinion Research found, 52% of Americans knew Democrats would handle the economy better than Republicans (39%).

Today it’s flipped to 48-45 in the GOP’s favor.

On handling terrorism, the gap is even wider: Republicans 50%, Democrats 40%.

As for non-politics, now that we have the very first game of the Major League Baseball season out of the way (Red Sox 9, Yankees 7), a plurality of Americans has already decided that the New York team will win another World Series. So why even bother with Obama’s first pitch in Washington today or the rest of the season?

— Andrew Malcolm

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“More Americans Believe in the Devil, Hell and Angels than in Darwin’s Theory of Evolution”

Posted by Mats on 28/01/2010

Harris Interactive

In a poll sure to make nearly everyone cringe—for varying reasons—more respondents were found to believe in “the devil, hell, and angels” than in Darwinism.

The Harris Poll surveyed more than 2,000 U.S. adults on a variety of questions related to the supernatural, both Christian (e.g., God, creation) and occult (e.g., witches, astrology). The poll also broke respondents into groups based on religious affiliation (Catholic or Protestant) and frequency of church attendance. Among the most interesting results:

  • 80 percent of all respondents believe in God; 93 percent of Catholics and 95 percent of Protestants (strange that 5-7% of self-identified Catholics and Protestants are apparently atheists).
  • 47 percent of all respondents accept Darwinism. Catholics are more likely (52 percent) than average to accept it, while Protestants are less likely (32 percent). 67 percent of those who never attend religious services said they accept Darwinism.
  • 40 percent of all respondents accept creationism, with those attending religious services at least weekly the most likely to accept it (64 percent); that number was strongly correlated with frequency of church attendance. Accepting creationism were 54 percent of Protestants and 46 percent of Catholics overall.
  • Belief in miracles, heaven, the deity of Christ, angels, the Resurrection, survival of the soul after death, hell, the virgin birth, and the devil were similar between Catholics and Protestants. However, Catholics were significantly more likely than Protestants to believe in ghosts, UFOs, and astrology.
  • Perhaps unsurprisingly, the group most likely to believe in ghosts (56 percent), UFOs (50 percent), astrology (39 percent), and reincarnation (33 percent) were those who attend religious services less than once a year (the category just ahead of those who never attend religious services). Presumably these respondents are neither grounded in religion nor are materialists, leaving them particularly susceptible to believe in the paranormal.

Questions were also asked about what constituted the “word of God,” though the results were not broken up according to religious attendance. Of all respondents, approximately 55 percent believe all or most of the Bible is God’s Word; for the Torah, the Koran, and the Book of Mormon the figures were 26, 9, and 10 percent, respectively.

Most of the findings are unsurprising, of course, and are reminders of the cultural divide in our society. In the past we’ve reported how Christians and theists are actually less likely to believe in (or “more skeptical of,” you could say) the paranormal than are those without religious affiliation.

What is most clear is something else we all already know: the church has as much of a mission as it ever has, and the harvest is as plentiful as ever.

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Conservatives Finish 2009 as No. 1 Ideological Group

Posted by Mats on 08/01/2010

Uptick owing largely to more independents calling themselves conservative

PRINCETON, NJ — The increased conservatism that Gallup first identified among Americans last June persisted throughout the year, so that the final year-end political ideology figures confirm Gallup’s initial reporting: conservatives (40%) outnumbered both moderates (36%) and liberals (21%) across the nation in 2009.

More broadly, the percentage of Americans calling themselves either conservative or liberal has increased over the last decade, while the percentage of moderates has declined.

Political Ideology -- Annual Trends From 1992-2009

Since 1992, there have been only two other years — 2003 and 2004 — in which the average percentage of conservatives nationwide outnumbered moderates, and in both cases, it was by two percentage points (in contrast to the current four points).

“The proportion of independents calling themselves “moderate” held relatively steady in the mid-40s over the last decade, while the proportion of Republican and Democratic moderates dwindled.”

The rather abrupt three-point increase between 2008 and 2009 in the percentage of Americans calling themselves conservative is largely owing to an increase — from 30% to 35% — in the percentage of political independents adopting the label. Over the same period, there was only a slight increase in professed conservatism among Republicans (from 70% to 71%) and no change among Democrats (at 21%).

Recent Trend in Percentage Identifying as Conservative -- by Party ID

The 2009 findings come from an aggregate of 21 separate Gallup and USA Today/Gallup surveys, including nearly 22,000 interviews. The 1992 to 2008 trends also represent thousands of interviews compiled for each year. Thus, the margins of sampling error around the individual estimates are less than one percentage point.

Trends of the Past Decade

Just looking at the decade that ended in 2009, Gallup’s annual political ideology trends document a slight dip in the percentage of Americans calling themselves moderate (from 40% in 2000 to 36% in 2009), while, at the same time, the ranks of both liberals and conservatives expanded slightly.

Gallup measures political ideology by asking Americans to indicate whether their political views are very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal. The detailed responses show a slight increase between 2000 and 2009 in the percentage of Americans calling themselves “very conservative” (from 6% to 9%) and less change in the percentage calling themselves “very liberal” (from 4% to 5%). Most conservatives continue to call themselves “conservative” rather than “very conservative,” and the same pattern is seen for liberals.

Detailed Political Ideology Findings: 2000 vs. 2009

Republicans Become More Solidly “Conservative”

In addition to the very recent increase in conservatism among independents, a growing percentage of Republicans identified themselves as such starting in 2003. Across the same period, the percentage of Democrats calling themselves conservative dipped slightly, somewhat offsetting the increase among Republicans.

Recent Trend in Percentage Conservative -- by Party ID

Partisans Shy Away From “Moderate” Label

The proportion of independents calling themselves “moderate” held relatively steady in the mid-40s over the last decade, while the proportion of Republican and Democratic moderates dwindled. Between 2000 and 2009, the percentage of moderates fell five percentage points among Democrats (from 44% to 39%) and seven points among Republicans (from 31% to 24%).

Recent Trend in Percentage Moderate -- by Party ID

Democrats Grow Increasingly “Liberal”

Similar to the increased conservatism among Republicans, there was a gradual increase in the last decade in “liberal” identification among Democrats, from 29% in 2002 to 38% in 2007, and it has since remained at about that level.

Recent Trend in Percentage Liberal -- by Party ID

The effect of this shift among Democrats is most apparent when one reviews the trend in their ideological profile over the past decade. Whereas moderates constituted the largest bloc of Democrats in 2000, today they are about tied with liberals as twin leaders, and the proportion of conservatives has declined.

Recent Political Ideology Trend -- Among Democrats

By contrast, the expanded number of conservatives making up the Republican Party has merely strengthened the conservatives’ already strong hold on that party.

Recent Political Ideology Trend -- Among Republicans

And despite the recent uptick in conservatism among independents, the largest segment continues to be moderate (although by a smaller margin than previously).

Recent Political Ideology Trend -- Among Independents

Bottom Line

Political independents showed increased attachment to the “conservative” label in 2009, boosting the overall ranks of that group so that it now clearly outnumbers moderates in Gallup’s annual averages for the first time since 2004. Longer term, the proportions of Americans calling themselves conservative as well as liberal expanded slightly this past decade, largely because of increased partisan attachment to each label. At the same time, the percentage of “moderates” has dwindled, underscoring the heightened polarization of American politics as the nation heads into a new decade.

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Survey Methods

Results are based on aggregated data from Gallup polls conducted in 2009, each based on telephone interviews with 1,000 or more national adults, aged 18 and older. For results based on the total sample of 21,905 national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.

Other results are based on aggregated Gallup surveys of approximately 1,000 national adults 18 and older each. Sample sizes for the annual compilations range from approximately 10,000 to approximately 40,000. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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The Next Generation of Leadership

The old rules still apply. But to win in the new world, leaders must understand their constituents’ “state of mind,” says Gallup’s chairman and CEO.

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New York Slimes Poll Was Stacked With Obama Supporters

Posted by Mats on 25/06/2009

From LGF 2.0
Say it ain’t so, O(bama)! Of course the New York Slimes defends their skewed numbers…

A New York Times/CBS News poll released Saturday that showed broad bipartisan support for President Obama’s health care reform, over-sampled Obama voters compared to McCain voters, critics say.

The poll, administered June 12-16, found that 72 percent of respondents favored the creation of a government health-insurance plan that would compete with private insurers.

It also said 50 percent of respondents thought the government would do a better job providing medical coverage than private insurers, up from 30 percent in 2007; and that 59 percent thought the government would be better at holding down costs, up from 47 percent two years ago.

But critics including pollster Kellyanne Conway say the results are inaccurate because they are heavily skewed toward those who voted for Obama in the 2008 presidential election.

In addition, other indicators point toward a repeat of the defeat Hillary Clinton’s proposed government-run faced in the early ‘90’s.

Out of 895 respondents, 24 percent were Republicans, 38 percent Democrats, and 38 percent were independents, according to a June 20 release from CBS News. While the release says the sampling was conducted at random, those numbers are significantly below the 32.6 percent who identify themselves as Republican according to a May survey from the nonpartisan Rasmussen Reports.

Similarly, the Times/CBS poll said 48 percent of respondents had voted for Obama, versus 25 percent for McCain, a nearly two-to-one advantage for Obama supporters.

Had those results been reflected in the November presidential election, Obama would have garnered 66 percent of the vote to McCain’s 34 percent, Conway, president & CEO of “the polling company,” told CNSNews.com.

“Was the vote 66-34? You tell me,” Conway said.

In 2008, Obama won 53 percent of the vote, McCain won 46 percent.

Conway said that the poll was skewed toward Democrats and Obama supporters because the Times and CBS made it so.

“Their original result was more in line (with other non-partisan polling for party identification) but they weighted those numbers,” Conway charged.

The random information gathered by the two media outlets originally saw fewer independents and Democrats, but their polling methodology saw those numbers shift at the expense of Republican representation. Conway called this a case of “a conclusion in search of evidence.”

New York Slimes Poll Was Stacked With Obama Supporters

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